Lohman continues to be ground zero for retail development, McMillan said. But tenants will be required to broaden their site selection playbook due to lack of opportunity.
Development around the new Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market is expected to spur more growth. Also, on the East Mesa, The Game II is under construction, Sonic has purchased land and several other lots have sold in the surrounding area, McMillan said. And the work to build a new Good Samaritan nursing home will likely draw additional need for commercial space in the area.
Medical office space will be increasingly in demand as a result of development by Memorial Medical Hospital, MountainView Hospital and the Burrell College of Ostepathic Medicine.
Kary Bulsterbaum, of Steinborn TCN Commercial Real Estate, said 2016 was very active and housing is off to a great 2016 start.
The market is evolving due to the changes in medical landscape and some industry segments like manufacturing, Bulsterbaum said. And there is an increasing demand for national, regional, state and local retailers to expand existing businesses or to enter the market as commercial needs change. Two areas to watch are retail and dining.
Construction is showing signs of a rebound, with lot sales and new home starts up. There are also signs that, once again, Las Cruces may become more of a retirement destination, with sales of upscale homes on the rise. The commercial demand, Bulsterbaum said, is for high-quality office space.
The city has shown a 2.4 percent job growth rate in 2015, 1.5 percent annually since 2010. Combined with 12 percent population growth since 2010 and double-digit growth expected by 2020, the demand for commercial space and especially mulit-family housing is going to grow.
Development around the New Mexico State University campus, including off-campus housing and potential commercial ventures on the eastern edge of campus -- including Arrowhead Park and the areas near the golf course -- also hold potential, Blusterbaum said.
Will available land lease options at University and Telshor put the retail and medical world on notice? Blusterbaum asked. Spec space at Arrowhead is pending. Is Pan Am Plaza about to see major changes? Will the hotel near the convention center be a game changer?
While those questions remain to be answered, one thing is certain.
Change is coming to the Las Cruces commercial markets.
Jason Gibbs may be reached at 575-541-5451 or jgibbs@lcsun-news.com. Follow him on Twitter @fjgwriter.