Much as been made in recent weeks about the widely watched median selling price of an Orange County local home finally returning to its prerecession high.
Home prices are just one of many yardsticks of the real estate markets health. But the CoreLogic median hitting $645,000 in April the first time back at the previous boom times pinnacle of June 2007 certainly stirred memories of that easy-money era, the ensuing real estate markets collapse, and the eventual global recession.
But if you wanted an earlier warning signal, its worth remembering that employment in local property-related niches peaked nearly two years before the CoreLogic price benchmark topped out. Almost as meaningful, Orange Countys real estate employment high of 2005 has yet to be beaten.
I filled my trusty spreadsheet with state employment data to learn that combined employment in key real estate job categories tradesmen, builders, heavy construction, lending, supplies, agents and planners averaged 240,000 in the 12 months ended in April. Thats up 48,000 workers in five years.
Still, despite this 25 percent job increase, Orange County real state jobs this year run nearly 30,000 workers below the previous booms high in 2005.
What I found highly intriguing was that the employment surge to 2005s job peak and real estates current real estate hiring spree look eerily similar in scope and speed, minus one crucial factor. Local lenders have added workers in the last five years at half the pace of the staffing boost of 2000 to 2005.
The current lending shortfall both in terms of banker hires and the difficulties in gaining home loans may be a blessing of sorts, recalling how the bad mortgages in the 2000s distorted real estates upswing, then helped sink the economy.
Real estate paid a steep price for those mortgage misdeeds. A great example: Local property-related businesses lost roughly 1 in 4 of their workers in the ugly fallout of the Great Recession.
Conversely, real estate has certainly contributed to the broad economic revival, post-Great Recession, with approximately a quarter of all new Orange County jobs coming from the property-related niches tracked.
Heres how these real estate employment categories fared during the past five years and what those hiring patterns may say about the future for local properties:
TRADESMEN
Specialty trade contractors employ 65,000 in Orange County, and these workers are in real estates hottest jobs.
Builders must scramble to find plumbers, electricians, roofers, carpenters, masons and the like to work on their growing lists of projects.
The addition of nearly 19,000 tradesman positions in five years a 41 percent bump reflects both constructions strong rebound as well as the developers desire to transfer more work to subcontractors. And knowledgeable folks in the profession say the hiring pace has been slowed by a lack of skilled workers.
You cant find people to build our homes, says Scott Laurie, chief executive of Olson Homes in Seal Beach. Salaries are up and thats a big reason why (home) prices are rising.
But for those a bit unnerved by the construction workers recent renewed popularity, please note: This hiring spree which includes 13 percent growth in the past year, the fastest in at least 15 years leaves this employment niche some 5,000 jobs below its all-time high set in the last boom.
BUILDERS
Builders of homes and commercial projects a job niche employing 21,000 in Orange County have been busy, adding almost 6,000 workers since 2011, or 37 percent growth.
Its not much of a surprise after developers essentially took the previous five years off from creating new properties in the recessions wake. When a resurgent local economy filled empty spaces, new residential, retail and office complexes went from stalled to reality.
With this niches employment up 10 percent in the past year nearly double the pace of the previous four years its a good bet well see continued construction work for the foreseeable future.
At Olson Homes, sales are running six months ahead of schedule, so a 45-home project in Huntington Beach just sold out as a 37-home project in Westminster opens. Managing hot demand is extra challenging when there is a shortage of experienced managers.
Its hard to find talent people, Laurie says. Its not a very deep pool to choose from.
EARTH MOVERS
When you see the big earthmovers at work, real estate is ready to rumble.
This niche does the big work, both highway and other infrastructure contracts, as well as moving dirt to turn raw land into buildable lots.
Bosses in heavy construction have operated in the past year with 8,600 workers, staffing thats just below record-high levels.
There are more big projects, but there are generally just more projects as well, said Wendy Rogers, chief talent officer at LPA Inc. architects in Irvine.
Government contracts finally seem to be on the upswing, but the level of private-sector assignments is worth watching. Any potential real estate slowdown may be signaled by job cuts in this construction sector.
LENDERS
Lenders are the exception to hiring patterns of this recovery, which looks much like the ramp-up to the job peak of the previous decade.
Borrowing boomed with the recent homebuying revival, and cheap rates are motivating mortgage refinancing. That allowed local lenders to add 8,000 workers in five years to a total of 40,000, a 26 percent pop.
If you forgot, extremely aggressive lending a decade ago foolish loans that helped create a housing bubble that burst was pioneered by several Orange County institutions. That temporary business opportunity motivated local lenders to add 18,000 workers (twice the latest hiring spree) between 2000 and 2005.
Trent Brooks of commercial lender Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital in Irvine says business is surging as big property owners seeking to buy new assets or refinance old ones.
Its not a good time to look for a job in the lending industry, is a great time, Brooks said
It may be twisted, reverse logic, but slower hiring at local home-loan lenders in recent years leaving the industry payroll down 13,000 from its bubble-fueled peak of decade ago actually may be good news.
Less risk-taking. Less employment. And (hopefully) fewer bad loans.
SUPPLY SHOPS
Build it and somebody will need supplies.
Jobs at building-supply shops averaging 10,000 in the past year have grown only modestly in the real estate rebound. The addition of 1,200 jobs (13 percent) in five years can be tied to industry becoming highly competitive, no matter if the merchant is serving home-remodeling consumers or building contractors.
Because of structural changes underway in this business including the influence of online merchants movements in this real estate job niche may not be very telling.
AGENTS
The business of selling and renting real estate employing 37,500 workers in the past year is nowhere as volatile as other property-related niches.
Consumers and corporations need roofs over their heads, in both good and bad economies. Still, modest 10 percent growth in the past five years leaves the category just 2,000 jobs short of its all-time high.
What should one make of slightly sluggish growth in employment at real estate sales and leasing companies in the past year just 1.3 percent year-over-year new jobs?
Probably not much. An acute shortage of properties to sell or vacant space to rent temporarily limits the opportunities for these workers. The high level of work done elsewhere in real estate trades should create the need for more transactions and greater demand for the sales and leasing businesses.
Commercial property brokers at Colliers International are so busy at their Irvine offices, as well as throughout the Western US, they are seeking extra office space to handle a growing staff.
The strength of this recovery, which is truly unique in many ways, means weve been recruiting many of the best known and most experienced experts and their teams across all the sectors of our industry, says Martin Pupil, Western region president for Colliers.
PLANNERS
Why has growth all but stopped in the past year at firms specializing in architectural and engineering services?
Its a big riddle, as the success of property planners is often tied to pending real estate activity.
These local firms added 5,000 workers in the last five years to amass staffs with 25,000 employees as demand has ballooned for new structures of all shapes and sizes.
LPAs Rogers is a bit surprised at this years sluggish job count, saying her firms 15 percent growth in business is creating new jobs in each of our integrated design disciplines in an extremely competitive market.
So, did local architects and engineers hire too fast and now are adjusting? Countywide staffing is just 1,000 people below the all-time high.
Or are future development plans dwindling, lowering demand for new planning and raising serious questions about the durability of the local real estate recovery?
Contact the writer: jlansner@ocregister.com